The median age in the EU has risen by 2.2 years over the past decade, with Southern and Central Eastern Europe experiencing the most rapid ageing. Declining birth rates and increased life expectancy are putting pressure on Europe’s workforce.
(Aleksandra Krzysztoszek | EURACTIV.pl)
The median age in the EU has increased by 2.2 years since 2014, according to Eurostat data. Population ageing is most pronounced in Southern Europe and the CEE region. This will have an impact on the labor market, putting additional pressure on the workforce to support society.
As of January 1, 2024, the median age of the EU population was 44.7 years, meaning that half of the population was older and half was younger. Across the bloc, the median age ranged from 39.4 in Ireland to 48.7 in Italy.
Since 2014, the median age in the EU increased by 2.2 years from 42.5 years, with increases recorded in all Member States except Malta (-0.7 years) and Germany (-0.1 years). In Germany, the median age decreased slightly from 45.6 years in 2014 to 45.5 years in 2024, while in Malta it decreased from 40.5 to 39.8 years over the same period.
The most significant ageing trends were observed in Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Slovakia, where the median age increased by 4.0 years. Cyprus, Spain and Poland also recorded significant increases of 3.8 years.
Between 2023 and 2024, the median age increased in 19 EU countries. In contrast, it will decrease in Germany, Malta and Finland, and remain unchanged in Denmark, Croatia, Lithuania, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.
At the beginning of 2024, the EU population was estimated at 449.3 million. Children (0-14 years) accounted for 14.6% of the total, while the working age population (15-64 years) represented 63.8%. Older adults (65 years and over) accounted for 21.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points (pp) on the previous year and 2.9 pp on a decade earlier, reflecting the ageing of EU society.
Ireland, Sweden, and France boast the highest shares of children in the EU. These countries have long maintained relatively high birth rates, supported by policies such as parental benefits, childcare subsidies, and family-friendly work arrangements.
On the other end of the spectrum, Italy, Malta, and Portugal have the lowest proportions of children. These figures reflect a broader pattern seen in Southern Europe, where economic uncertainty, high youth unemployment, and housing costs discourage family growth.
Between 2023 and 2024, the share of children declined across nearly all EU nations. The only exceptions were Hungary and Austria, where the percentage remained stable—perhaps due to government incentives promoting childbirth and family support programs.
At the same time, the proportion of older adults (65+) continues to grow. Italy (24.3%), Portugal (24.1%), and Bulgaria (23.8%) have the highest shares of elderly residents, reflecting decades of low birth rates and high life expectancy. These countries now face increasing pressure to sustain pension systems and healthcare services for ageing populations.
In contrast, Luxembourg (15.0%) and Ireland (15.5%) have the smallest proportions of older adults, likely due to their relatively high immigration rates, which bring in younger working-age populations.
Between 2023 and 2024, the share of older adults increased in 26 out of 27 EU countries. The only exception was Malta, where the proportion of older residents slightly declined—potentially due to shifts in migration patterns or demographic composition.
The proportion of older adults (65+) is rising across every EU country, reshaping the region’s demographic landscape. Over the past decade, this increase has been particularly pronounced in Central and Eastern Europe, where ageing populations are accelerating at an unprecedented pace.
Between 2014 and 2024, Poland (5.6 percentage points), Slovakia (4.9pp), Croatia (4.5pp), and Slovenia (4.3pp) experienced the most significant increases in their older populations. These countries, historically characterized by younger demographics, are now seeing a rapid shift due to a combination of rising life expectancy and declining birth rates.
In contrast, Malta (0.8pp), Luxembourg (0.9pp), and Sweden (1.2pp) recorded more gradual increases. These nations have relatively high immigration rates, which help balance ageing trends by bringing in younger working-age populations.
At the EU level, the share of older adults has risen by 2.9pp over the last decade, a trend expected to continue in the coming years.
Two key factors are fueling this demographic transformation:
Europe’s population is set to peak at 453.3 million around 2026 before slowly shrinking to 419.5 million by 2100, according to Eurostat projections. By the end of the century, the continent’s age structure will look very different.
Today’s population pyramid, with a broad middle and a narrowing top, will shift toward a more block-like shape. The number of older adults will continue to rise, while the group of middle-aged workers (45-54) will shrink significantly. This reflects the long-term impact of low birth rates and an aging workforce.
As Europe’s population ages, the balance between working-age individuals and retirees is shifting. One key measure of this change is the old-age dependency ratio, which compares the number of older adults (65+) to those of working age (15-64).
On 1 January 2024, the EU’s old-age dependency ratio reached 33.9%, meaning that for every one retiree, there were just over three working-age people to support them. However, this balance varies widely across the continent.
Luxembourg (21.7%) and Ireland (23.6%) had the lowest dependency ratios, with nearly five workers per retiree. In contrast, Italy (38.4%), Bulgaria (38.2%), and Portugal (38.2%) faced the greatest strain, with fewer than three workers per retiree. This gap highlights how some countries are better positioned to manage pension and healthcare demands than others.
The trend is clear: Europe’s workforce is shrinking while its elderly population grows. Between 2023 and 2024 alone, the EU’s old-age dependency ratio rose by 0.5 percentage points, increasing in 25 member states. Finland remained stable, while Malta was the only country to see a slight decline.
One factor influencing Europe’s demographics is migration. While foreign-born residents tend to be younger than native-born populations, the difference is relatively small. As of January 2024, the median age of EU-born residents was 45.1 years, compared to 43.1 years for foreign-born residents.
However, the composition of these groups tells a bigger story. Nearly 60% of foreign-born residents were aged 20-54, compared to just 42% of native-born Europeans. This suggests that most migrants arrive in the EU at working age, filling crucial labor gaps in sectors such as healthcare, construction, and technology.
The growing old-age dependency ratio presents a serious challenge. With fewer workers supporting more retirees, Europe’s pension systems, healthcare services, and labor markets will face increasing strain. While migration can temporarily ease workforce shortages, it is not a long-term solution to the continent’s broader demographic decline.
To mitigate the effects of an aging population, governments must act now. Encouraging higher birth rates, extending working lives, and reforming pension systems will be crucial to maintaining economic stability. Without strategic action, the burden on younger generations will only continue to grow
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