Live

Climate change and the increasing need for water are big challenges for scientists these days. Droughts used to happen in cycles, but now they’re more frequent and way worse.

Predicting droughts accurately is super important for managing water and preventing environmental and social disasters. Current methods mostly use short-term weather forecasts and rainfall patterns, which can only predict droughts a few months in advance.

But, new research suggests that by looking at long-term atmospheric cycles, we might be able to predict droughts up to four years ahead.

Improved forecasting and the EU Water Framework Directive

Long-term predictions could really improve water management systems everywhere. They could also help achieve the goals of the EU Water Framework Directive, which aims for sustainable water resource management.

With better forecasting, strategies to deal with droughts could be implemented earlier. This is super important because of climate change and the increasing need for water for drinking, farming, and industry.

Current methods

Current drought forecasting models mostly look at short-term weather patterns and average monthly rainfall and groundwater levels.

In practice, this means that most forecasts only cover a single season, and their accuracy depends on rapidly changing weather conditions. It’s also hard to predict longer periods of drought, which can last for years.

The main problems with existing methods come from significant atmospheric variability and difficulties in forecasting global weather trends over long periods. So, scientists have started exploring alternative approaches that use long-term atmospheric patterns to predict drought periods more accurately.

The North Atlantic Oscillation and drought forecasting

Scientists are looking at the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to see if it can help predict droughts over a longer period. The NAO looks at differences in air pressure over the North Atlantic, which affect how rain falls in Europe.

By studying data from 1960 to 2023 and comparing it to NAO cycles, researchers found that 8-year atmospheric cycles were closely linked to long droughts. They found that NAO patterns could predict how intense and how long droughts would be, sometimes up to four years in advance, which is a big step forward in drought prediction.

Regional variations

The study found that how well droughts can be predicted depends on a few things, like how long the drought lasts and what kind of rocks and soil are in the area.

Predictions were more accurate in areas where the water system changes slowly in response to rainfall, like in places with sandstone aquifers. Also, they were less accurate in areas where groundwater levels change quickly.

The main takeaway was that longer droughts are easier to predict because it seems that looking at long-term atmospheric patterns is better for predicting droughts than looking at short-term weather data.

Practical use

Better drought forecasting gives us a heads up, so we can take action sooner. Public authorities and water management organizations can react faster by limiting water use or moving it around between river basins depending on need.

It’s also key to get better at tracking drought indicators and working with the private sector, which is in charge of water supply in many places.

EU regulations say that ecological river flows and groundwater withdrawals need to match natural inflows. Because of this, lots of countries are adopting drought management plans. These plans aren’t required, but they’re a good idea for areas that often have water shortages.

With forecasts that are more accurate, water management strategies can be adjusted to better fit changing climate conditions.

Drought Risk Assessment Visualization Tool

 

Visual Drought Atlas

 

European and Global Drought Observatories

 

A dataset for monitoring agricultural drought in Europe

 

WaterSMART Data Visualization Tool

The future of drought forecasting

This new way of predicting droughts opens up a lot of possibilities for scientists and water resource managers. Future research will focus on testing the model in different climates and adding it to existing forecasting systems.

In the long run, we might be able to develop comprehensive water management strategies that will help us get ready for future droughts and lessen their impact.

Studies on how the atmosphere affects water resources could help improve drought warning systems and make water management policies more effective at both national and international levels.

With climate challenges getting bigger, innovative forecasting methods may be critical for ensuring stable water supplies and minimizing the negative effects of droughts on the economy and the environment.

Written by

Shape the conversation

Do you have anything to add to this story? Any ideas for interviews or angles we should explore? Let us know if you’d like to write a follow-up, a counterpoint, or share a similar story.

Write a counterargument article Write a related article